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Pavia vs Ciserano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Pavia

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Ciserano

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-117.5%0-28.1%0-32.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.1%1-112.9%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.2%2-14.8%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.3%3-11.2%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 35.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 8.7% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

D 35% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 0–1 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 14.1%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pavia0.7

Ciserano0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 8.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PAVIA · PPG 1.06

CISERANO · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Pavia (H) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ciserano (A) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pavia face Ciserano in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pavia a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Ciserano 35%, so Ciserano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Pavia and 0.9 for Ciserano (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pavia are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.25 for Ciserano. This match finished 3-0.

Pavia vs Ciserano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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