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Ciserano vs Castellanzese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Ciserano

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Castellanzese

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-111.4%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-17.8%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 33.2% — — —

Away win 29.1% — — —

Over 2.5 37.0% — — —

Over 3.5 17.6% — — —

BTTS 45.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.7%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciserano1.2

Castellanzese1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CISERANO · PPG 1.56

CASTELLANZESE · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Ciserano (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Castellanzese (A) 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciserano face Castellanzese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciserano a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Castellanzese 29%, so Ciserano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ciserano and 1.0 for Castellanzese (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciserano are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.94 for Castellanzese. This match finished 1-1.

Ciserano vs Castellanzese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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