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Breno vs Villa Alme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Breno

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Villa Alme

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.3%0-25.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.2%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 31.0% — — —

Over 2.5 47.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.4% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.7%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breno1.4

Villa Alme1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENO · PPG 1.38

VILLA ALME · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Breno (H) 38.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Alme (A) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Breno face Villa Alme in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breno a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Villa Alme 31%, so Breno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Breno and 1.2 for Villa Alme (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breno are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Villa Alme. This match finished 2-1.

Breno vs Villa Alme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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