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Oltrepo vs Brusaporto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Oltrepo

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Brusaporto

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-113.3%0-27.3%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.2%2-16.8%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.1%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% — — —

Draw 33.9% — — —

Away win 35.1% — — —

Over 2.5 35.2% — — —

Over 3.5 16.3% — — —

BTTS 44.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob44.4%

D 34% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oltrepo1.0

Brusaporto1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OLTREPO · PPG 1.13

BRUSAPORTO · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Oltrepo (H) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brusaporto (A) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Oltrepo face Brusaporto in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oltrepo a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Brusaporto 35%, so Brusaporto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Oltrepo and 1.1 for Brusaporto (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oltrepo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.75 for Brusaporto. This match finished 2-1.

Oltrepo vs Brusaporto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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