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Brusaporto vs F. Caratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Brusaporto

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

F. Caratese

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-117.7%0-210.7%0-34.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.6%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.7%2-14.5%2-22.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 39.3% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.0% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.5%

A 39% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 0–1 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brusaporto0.7

F. Caratese1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUSAPORTO · PPG 1.33

F. CARATESE · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Brusaporto (H) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

F. Caratese (A) 39.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brusaporto face F. Caratese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brusaporto a 28% chance, the draw 32% and F. Caratese 39%, so F. Caratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Brusaporto and 1.2 for F. Caratese (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brusaporto are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.19 for F. Caratese. This match finished 3-1.

Brusaporto vs F. Caratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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