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Scanzorosciate vs USD Casatese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Scanzorosciate

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

USD Casatese

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-113.8%0-26.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.9%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.2%2-16.6%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 32.8% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 12.2% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scanzorosciate1.0

USD Casatese0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SCANZOROSCIATE · PPG 1.56

USD CASATESE · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Scanzorosciate (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

USD Casatese (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Scanzorosciate face USD Casatese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scanzorosciate a 38% chance, the draw 33% and USD Casatese 30%, so Scanzorosciate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Scanzorosciate and 0.9 for USD Casatese (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scanzorosciate are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.81 for USD Casatese. This match finished 0-3.

Scanzorosciate vs USD Casatese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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