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Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 05:00

Seoul

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 90.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+71.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-11.1%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.7%1-13.2%1-20.4%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.3%2-14.7%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-017.0%3-14.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-026.0%4+-17.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 90.3% 52.6% 1.90 +71.6%

Draw 7.9% 29.0% 3.45 -72.7%

Away win 1.8% 25.3% 3.95 -92.9%

Over 2.5 62.5% 52.4% 1.91 +19.4%

Over 3.5 40.3% 30.8% 3.25 +31.0%

BTTS 22.7% 57.8% 1.73 -60.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob22.7%

H 90% / xG 3.0-0.3 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.3%

#2 3–0 17.0%

#3 4–0 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 5–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul3.0

Daejeon Citizen0.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL · PPG 3.00

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

64%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Seoul (H) 90.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +71.6%

Draw 7.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -72.7%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 1.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -92.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul face Daejeon Citizen in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul a 90% chance, the draw 8% and Daejeon Citizen 2%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Seoul and 0.3 for Daejeon Citizen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +71.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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