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Gangwon vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 05:00

Gangwon

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.4%0-110.9%0-22.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-16.1%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 39.2% 2.55 +22.1%

Draw 33.6% 33.3% 3.00 +0.8%

Away win 18.5% 35.1% 2.85 -47.3%

Over 2.5 21.4% 44.4% 2.25 -51.8%

Over 3.5 7.8% 23.8% 4.20 -67.2%

BTTS 27.0% 54.1% 1.85 -50.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob27.0%

H 48% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.5%

#2 0–0 20.4%

#3 1–1✓ 11.5%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangwon1.1

Jeonbuk0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.4% · O3.5 PROB 7.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGWON · PPG 1.67

JEONBUK · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Gangwon (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +22.1%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.8%

Jeonbuk (A) 18.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangwon face Jeonbuk in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangwon a 48% chance, the draw 34% and Jeonbuk 19%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gangwon and 0.5 for Jeonbuk (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangwon are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Jeonbuk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Gangwon vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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