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Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Sassuolo

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

AC Milan

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-113.0%0-28.5%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.8%1-113.0%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.9%2-16.5%2-24.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.4% 22.7% 4.40 +16.2%

Draw 31.7% 25.6% 3.90 +23.6%

Away win 41.9% 58.8% 1.70 -28.8%

Over 2.5 40.9% 58.8% 1.70 -30.5%

Over 3.5 20.5% 35.7% 2.80 -42.6%

BTTS 48.3% 58.8% 1.70 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.3%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo1.0

AC Milan1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.53

AC MILAN · PPG 2.06

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo (H) 26.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +16.2%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +23.6%

AC Milan (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo face AC Milan in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo a 26% chance, the draw 32% and AC Milan 42%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sassuolo and 1.3 for AC Milan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 2.06 for AC Milan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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