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Olimpia vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

Olimpia

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

S. Ameliano

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.9%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 59.5% 1.68 -24.7%

Draw 32.2% 29.0% 3.45 +11.1%

Away win 23.0% 20.4% 4.90 +12.7%

Over 2.5 37.2% 50.0% 2.00 -25.6%

Over 3.5 17.7% 28.2% 3.55 -37.2%

BTTS 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.4%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia1.3

S. Ameliano0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA · PPG 2.50

S. AMELIANO · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -24.7%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +11.1%

S. Ameliano (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia face S. Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia a 45% chance, the draw 32% and S. Ameliano 23%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Olimpia and 0.9 for S. Ameliano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.78 for S. Ameliano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Olimpia vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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