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D. Recoleta vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

D. Recoleta

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cerro Porteno

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.1%0-26.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.2%1-112.5%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-17.8%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% — — —

Draw 30.1% — — —

Away win 37.6% — — —

Over 2.5 48.2% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Recoleta1.2

Cerro Porteno1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

D. RECOLETA · PPG 1.67

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

D. Recoleta (H) 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cerro Porteno (A) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Recoleta face Cerro Porteno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Recoleta a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Cerro Porteno 38%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for D. Recoleta and 1.4 for Cerro Porteno (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Recoleta are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.13 for Cerro Porteno. This match finished 2-1.

D. Recoleta vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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