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Chornomorets vs Prykarpattia Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Chornomorets

PPG 2.42 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Prykarpattia

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-19.1%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.5%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 37.7% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 43.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chornomorets1.4

Prykarpattia0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORNOMORETS · PPG 2.42

PRYKARPATTIA · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.42) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Chornomorets (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Prykarpattia (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chornomorets face Prykarpattia in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chornomorets a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Prykarpattia 20%, so Chornomorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chornomorets and 0.8 for Prykarpattia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chornomorets are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 1.42 for Prykarpattia. This match finished 3-0.

Chornomorets vs Prykarpattia Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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