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Dewa Utd vs Semen Padang Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Dewa Utd

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Semen Padang

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.7%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.3%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.4%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 75.2% 1.33 -26.2%

Draw 27.3% 20.8% 4.80 +31.0%

Away win 17.2% 14.3% 7.00 +20.4%

Over 2.5 47.1% 67.6% 1.48 -30.3%

Over 3.5 25.5% 45.5% 2.20 -43.9%

BTTS 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.8%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.2%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dewa Utd1.7

Semen Padang0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEWA UTD · PPG 1.73

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.53

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=55.5%

Win probability 1X2

Dewa Utd (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -26.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +31.0%

Semen Padang (A) 17.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dewa Utd face Semen Padang in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dewa Utd a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Semen Padang 17%, so Dewa Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dewa Utd and 0.9 for Semen Padang (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dewa Utd are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.53 for Semen Padang. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Dewa Utd vs Semen Padang Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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