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Edgeworth E. vs Charlestown A. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 04:00

Edgeworth E.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.3%0-27.1%0-34.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.4%1-110.9%1-29.3%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.2%2-26.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 52.4% 1.91 -43.7%

Draw 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -19.4%

Away win 46.8% 30.3% 3.30 +54.4%

Over 2.5 58.1% — — —

Over 3.5 35.7% — — —

BTTS 59.8% 65.4% 1.53 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.8%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 8.3%

#4 2–1✓ 7.2%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth E.1.3

Charlestown A.1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 3.00

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=29.5%

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth E. (H) 29.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -43.7%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -19.4%

Charlestown A. (A) 46.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +54.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth E. face Charlestown A. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth E. a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Charlestown A. 47%, so Charlestown A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Edgeworth E. and 1.7 for Charlestown A. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth E. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Charlestown A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Edgeworth E. vs Charlestown A. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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