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SGS Essen W vs Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

SGS Essen W

PPG 0.73 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Leverkusen W

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.6%0-28.1%0-35.7%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.6%2-15.5%2-25.9%2-34.2%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.4%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.7% 17.2% 5.80 +14.3%

Draw 23.4% 24.4% 4.10 -4.1%

Away win 57.0% 69.0% 1.45 -17.3%

Over 2.5 64.6% 58.8% 1.70 +9.8%

Over 3.5 42.6% 36.4% 2.75 +17.2%

BTTS 63.0% 55.6% 1.80 +13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SGS Essen W1.2

Leverkusen W2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SGS ESSEN W · PPG 0.73

LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 1.45

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.45) vs Home POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

SGS Essen W (H) 19.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.1%

Leverkusen W (A) 57.0%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

SGS Essen W face Leverkusen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SGS Essen W a 20% chance, the draw 23% and Leverkusen W 57%, so Leverkusen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SGS Essen W and 2.1 for Leverkusen W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SGS Essen W are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.45 for Leverkusen W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 0-4.

SGS Essen W vs Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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