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Paderborn B vs Fortuna Koln Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Paderborn B

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fortuna Koln

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.6%0-27.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.8%1-111.9%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-17.3%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 42.4% — — —

Over 2.5 52.3% — — —

Over 3.5 30.1% — — —

BTTS 57.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paderborn B1.2

Fortuna Koln1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PADERBORN B · PPG 1.60

FORTUNA KOLN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Paderborn B (H) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortuna Koln (A) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paderborn B face Fortuna Koln in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paderborn B a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Fortuna Koln 42%, so Fortuna Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Paderborn B and 1.5 for Fortuna Koln (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paderborn B are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Fortuna Koln. This match finished 2-1.

Paderborn B vs Fortuna Koln Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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