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Zwickau vs RW Erfurt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Zwickau

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

RW Erfurt

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.7%0-25.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.8%1-111.4%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 56.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.9% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.0%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1✓ 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zwickau1.5

RW Erfurt1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZWICKAU · PPG 2.33

RW ERFURT · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Win probability 1X2

Zwickau (H) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

RW Erfurt (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zwickau face RW Erfurt in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zwickau a 37% chance, the draw 28% and RW Erfurt 36%, so Zwickau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zwickau and 1.5 for RW Erfurt (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zwickau are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.07 for RW Erfurt. This match finished 2-1.

Zwickau vs RW Erfurt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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