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Meuselwitz vs Chemie Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Meuselwitz

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chemie Leipzig

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.9%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.1%1-111.9%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-18.9%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.4%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 31.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.0% — — —

Over 3.5 30.8% — — —

BTTS 58.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.3%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meuselwitz1.5

Chemie Leipzig1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MEUSELWITZ · PPG 1.07

CHEMIE LEIPZIG · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Meuselwitz (H) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chemie Leipzig (A) 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Meuselwitz face Chemie Leipzig in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meuselwitz a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Chemie Leipzig 31%, so Meuselwitz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Meuselwitz and 1.3 for Chemie Leipzig (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meuselwitz are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.80 for Chemie Leipzig. This match finished 0-4.

Meuselwitz vs Chemie Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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