Today / USA - Major League Soccer / Vancouver vs Sporting KC

Vancouver vs Sporting KC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 02:30

Vancouver

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sporting KC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home 91% chance

Model probability 99.2% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.0%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.8%1-10.3%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-02.6%2-10.9%2-20.2%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.4%3-11.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-061.5%4+-121.5%4+-23.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 99.2% 87.0% 1.15 +14.1%

Draw 0.6% 14.1% 7.10 -95.7%

Away win 0.1% 5.9% 17.00 -98.3%

Over 2.5 96.1% 78.1% 1.28 +23.0%

Over 3.5 89.7% 58.8% 1.70 +52.5%

BTTS 29.4% 54.1% 1.85 -45.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)6.3 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob29.4%

H 99% / xG 6.3-0.3 / O2.5 96% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 10.7%

#2 4–0 8.6%

#3 3–0✓ 5.4%

#4 5–1 3.8%

#5 4–1 3.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vancouver6.3

Sporting KC0.3

COMBINED 6.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 96.1% · O3.5 PROB 89.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VANCOUVER · PPG 2.50

SPORTING KC · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

91%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vancouver (H) 99.2%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV +14.1%

Draw 0.6%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV -95.7%

Sporting KC (A) 0.1%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV -98.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vancouver face Sporting KC in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vancouver a 99% chance, the draw 1% and Sporting KC 0%, so Vancouver are favoured to win. Expected goals are 6.3 for Vancouver and 0.3 for Sporting KC (6.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 96% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vancouver are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Sporting KC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Vancouver vs Sporting KC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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