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Atalanta U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:00

Atalanta U20

PPG 1.76 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fiorentina U20

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.6%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.7%1-111.7%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.9%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 31.5% — — —

Over 2.5 54.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 59.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.4%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2✓ 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta U201.5

Fiorentina U201.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA U20 · PPG 1.76

FIORENTINA U20 · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta U20 (H) 40.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fiorentina U20 (A) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta U20 face Fiorentina U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta U20 a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Fiorentina U20 32%, so Atalanta U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atalanta U20 and 1.3 for Fiorentina U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta U20 are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.29 for Fiorentina U20. This match finished 1-2.

Atalanta U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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