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Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:00

Hibernian

PPG 1.76 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Celtic

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.4%0-25.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.1%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 21.3% 4.70 +78.1%

Draw 29.1% 24.4% 4.10 +19.3%

Away win 33.0% 61.3% 1.63 -46.2%

Over 2.5 52.0% 61.7% 1.62 -15.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% 39.2% 2.55 -24.0%

BTTS 57.7% 60.6% 1.65 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.7%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2✓ 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernian1.4

Celtic1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.76

CELTIC · PPG 1.76

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.76), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Hibernian (H) 37.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +78.1%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +19.3%

Celtic (A) 33.0%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -46.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernian face Celtic in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernian a 38% chance, the draw 29% and Celtic 33%, so Hibernian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hibernian and 1.3 for Celtic (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernian are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.76 for Celtic. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +78.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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