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Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:30

Bologna

PPG 1.18 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cagliari

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.0%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 54.6% 1.83 -20.4%

Draw 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away win 25.9% 23.1% 4.33 +12.2%

Over 2.5 44.1% 47.6% 2.10 -7.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

BTTS 50.6% 51.8% 1.93 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.7%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna1.4

Cagliari1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.18

CAGLIARI · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Bologna (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -20.4%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.0%

Cagliari (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face Cagliari in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Cagliari 26%, so Bologna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bologna and 1.0 for Cagliari (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.82 for Cagliari. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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