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Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:30

Bologna

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cagliari

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.0%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 54.6% 1.83 -20.4%

Draw 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away win 25.9% 23.1% 4.33 +12.2%

Over 2.5 44.1% 47.6% 2.10 -7.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

BTTS 50.6% 51.8% 1.93 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.7%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna1.4

Cagliari1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.18

CAGLIARI · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Bologna (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -20.4%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.0%

Cagliari (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face Cagliari in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Cagliari 26%, so Bologna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bologna and 1.0 for Cagliari (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.82 for Cagliari. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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