R. Vallecano B vs Socuellamos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 33 Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4· Madrid Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

R. Vallecano B PPG 1.44

0-2 MISS

Socuellamos PPG 0.63

Home· +10.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Vallecano B face Socuellamos in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Vallecano B a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Socuellamos 25%, so R. Vallecano B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for R. Vallecano B and 1.1 for Socuellamos (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Vallecano B are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.63 for Socuellamos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.3%

Odds: 2.38 EV: +10.2%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -5.2%

Away 25.4%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -36.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 32.1% Odds: — —

BTTS 58.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

R. Vallecano B

1.75

Socuellamos

1.11

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+10.2%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=46.3%