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R. Vallecano B vs Socuellamos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

R. Vallecano B

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Socuellamos

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.1%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 42.0% 2.38 +10.2%

Draw 28.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.2%

Away win 25.4% 40.0% 2.50 -36.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 32.1% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Vallecano B1.7

Socuellamos1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

R. VALLECANO B · PPG 1.44

SOCUELLAMOS · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=46.3%

Win probability 1X2

R. Vallecano B (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +10.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.2%

Socuellamos (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Vallecano B face Socuellamos in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Vallecano B a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Socuellamos 25%, so R. Vallecano B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for R. Vallecano B and 1.1 for Socuellamos (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Vallecano B are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.63 for Socuellamos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-2.

R. Vallecano B vs Socuellamos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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