Jaguares de C. vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 17 Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria· Monteria Friday, April 17, 2026 21:00

Jaguares de C. PPG 1.63

2-3 MISS

Deportivo Pasto PPG 1.57

Away· +80.8% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares de C. face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares de C. a 9% chance, the draw 16% and Deportivo Pasto 75%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Jaguares de C. and 2.4 for Deportivo Pasto (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares de C. are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.57 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 9.1%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -72.7%

Draw 16.2%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -50.6%

Away 74.7%

Odds: 2.42 EV: +80.8%

Model lean: Away

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.7% Odds: 2.15 +26.2%

Over 3.5 36.3% Odds: 3.95 +43.4%

BTTS 45.1% Odds: 1.85 -16.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 0-3 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Jaguares de C.

0.69

Deportivo Pasto

2.36

Model SuggestionAway +80.8% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.5%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.57)