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Jaguares de C. vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 17 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 21:00

Jaguares de C.

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 41.3% — a clear edge.

+80.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-111.2%0-213.2%0-310.4%0-4+10.7%1 1-03.3%1-17.7%1-29.1%1-37.2%1-4+7.4%2 2-01.1%2-12.7%2-23.1%2-32.5%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.1% 33.3% 3.00 -72.7%

Draw 16.2% 32.8% 3.05 -50.6%

Away win 74.7% 41.3% 2.42 +80.8%

Over 2.5 58.7% 46.5% 2.15 +26.2%

Over 3.5 36.3% 25.3% 3.95 +43.4%

BTTS 45.1% 54.1% 1.85 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob45.1%

A 75% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 0–3 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares de C.0.7

Deportivo Pasto2.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES DE C. · PPG 1.63

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares de C. (H) 9.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -72.7%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -50.6%

Deportivo Pasto (A) 74.7%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +80.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares de C. face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares de C. a 9% chance, the draw 16% and Deportivo Pasto 75%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Jaguares de C. and 2.4 for Deportivo Pasto (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares de C. are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.57 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Jaguares de C. vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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