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Los Chankas vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 20:00

Los Chankas

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-17.6%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.3%1-111.4%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.6%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-14.3%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 60.6% 1.65 -4.8%

Draw 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -7.7%

Away win 16.3% 18.2% 5.50 -10.3%

Over 2.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

Over 3.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -26.9%

BTTS 37.6% 48.8% 2.05 -22.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.6%

H 58% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 2–0✓ 13.0%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Chankas1.5

Atletico Grau0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS CHANKAS · PPG 3.00

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=57.7%

Win probability 1X2

Los Chankas (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -4.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.7%

Atletico Grau (A) 16.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Chankas face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Chankas a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Grau 16%, so Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Los Chankas and 0.7 for Atletico Grau (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Chankas are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Atletico Grau. This match finished 2-0.

Los Chankas vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions