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Villarreal B vs Hercules Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Villarreal B

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Hercules

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.6%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 56.5% 1.77 -14.5%

Draw 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away win 21.1% 24.4% 4.10 -13.5%

Over 2.5 40.9% 51.8% 1.93 -21.1%

Over 3.5 20.5% 29.9% 3.35 -31.3%

BTTS 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 14.2%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal B1.4

Hercules0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL B · PPG 1.71

HERCULES · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal B (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -14.5%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.0%

Hercules (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal B face Hercules in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal B a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Hercules 21%, so Villarreal B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Villarreal B and 0.9 for Hercules (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal B are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.65 for Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Villarreal B vs Hercules Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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