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Torremolinos vs Atletico M. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Torremolinos

PPG 1.47 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico M. B

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.6%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.4%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.6%2-17.6%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 37.0% 2.70 -15.8%

Draw 30.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Away win 38.3% 40.8% 2.45 -6.2%

Over 2.5 46.6% 50.0% 2.00 -6.8%

Over 3.5 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.0%

BTTS 53.4% 57.8% 1.73 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.4%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torremolinos1.2

Atletico M. B1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREMOLINOS · PPG 1.47

ATLETICO M. B · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Torremolinos (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.8%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Atletico M. B (A) 38.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torremolinos face Atletico M. B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torremolinos a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Atletico M. B 38%, so Atletico M. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Torremolinos and 1.3 for Atletico M. B (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torremolinos are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.50 for Atletico M. B. This match finished 3-1.

Torremolinos vs Atletico M. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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