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Teruel vs Tarazona Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Teruel

PPG 1.65 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Tarazona

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-113.5%0-25.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.5%1-113.0%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.4%2-16.2%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-12.0%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

Draw 37.7% 33.9% 2.95 +11.2%

Away win 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.2%

Over 2.5 24.2% 36.4% 2.75 -33.5%

Over 3.5 9.3% 20.0% 5.00 -53.5%

BTTS 34.2% 45.5% 2.20 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob34.2%

H 37% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 18.3%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teruel1.0

Tarazona0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 9.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TERUEL · PPG 1.65

TARAZONA · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.65) vs P(Home)=37.3%

Win probability 1X2

Teruel (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -16.1%

Draw 37.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +11.2%

Tarazona (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teruel face Tarazona in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teruel a 37% chance, the draw 38% and Tarazona 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Teruel and 0.7 for Tarazona (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teruel are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.76 for Tarazona. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Teruel vs Tarazona Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions