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S. Trinidense vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 17 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 20:00

S. Trinidense

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Lorenzo

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+30.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-13.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.5%1-18.0%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-16.1%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-15.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 57.1% 1.75 +30.0%

Draw 17.5% 29.9% 3.35 -41.4%

Away win 8.2% 22.0% 4.55 -62.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 26.0% 3.85 +9.3%

BTTS 37.4% 51.8% 1.93 -27.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob37.4%

H 74% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 3–0 11.1%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Trinidense2.1

San Lorenzo0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

S. TRINIDENSE · PPG 2.00

SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

S. Trinidense (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +30.0%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -41.4%

San Lorenzo (A) 8.2%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -62.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Trinidense face San Lorenzo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Trinidense a 74% chance, the draw 18% and San Lorenzo 8%, so S. Trinidense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for S. Trinidense and 0.6 for San Lorenzo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Trinidense are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.25 for San Lorenzo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 2-1.

S. Trinidense vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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