Persik Kediri vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 31 Brawijaya Stadium· Kediri Sunday, May 3, 2026 08:30

Persik Kediri PPG 1.73

3-2 MISS

Arema PPG 1.27

Away· +8.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Persik Kediri face Arema in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persik Kediri a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Arema 35%, so Persik Kediri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Persik Kediri and 1.3 for Arema (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persik Kediri are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.27 for Arema. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.5%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -27.2%

Draw 29.5%

Odds: 3.50 EV: +3.3%

Away 35.0%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +8.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.6% Odds: 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% Odds: 2.75 -21.3%

BTTS 56.7% Odds: 1.57 -11.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Persik Kediri

1.36

Arema

1.34

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+8.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)