Today / Indonesia - Liga 1 / Persik Kediri vs Arema

Persik Kediri vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 08:30

Persik Kediri

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Arema

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.0%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.1%1-112.3%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 48.8% 2.05 -27.2%

Draw 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +3.3%

Away win 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% 36.4% 2.75 -21.3%

BTTS 56.7% 63.7% 1.57 -11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.7%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.7%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persik Kediri1.4

Arema1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 1.73

AREMA · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Persik Kediri (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.2%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +3.3%

Arema (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persik Kediri face Arema in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persik Kediri a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Arema 35%, so Persik Kediri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Persik Kediri and 1.3 for Arema (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persik Kediri are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.27 for Arema. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Persik Kediri vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions