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Real Murcia vs Antequera Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 19:15

Real Murcia

PPG 1.44 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Antequera

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-114.8%0-29.7%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.3%2-15.6%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 60.6% 1.65 -59.3%

Draw 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.9%

Away win 47.0% 20.8% 4.80 +125.6%

Over 2.5 37.4% 50.0% 2.00 -25.2%

Over 3.5 17.8% 27.8% 3.60 -35.9%

BTTS 42.6% 51.8% 1.93 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob42.6%

A 47% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.8%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–2 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Murcia0.9

Antequera1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.44

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Real Murcia (H) 24.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -59.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.9%

Antequera (A) 47.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +125.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Murcia face Antequera in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Murcia a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Antequera 47%, so Antequera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Murcia and 1.3 for Antequera (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Murcia are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Antequera. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +125.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Real Murcia vs Antequera Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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