Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Weston Bears vs Edgeworth E.

Weston Bears vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 05:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Edgeworth E.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.0%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.3%1-17.1%1-25.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.1%2-18.3%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.0%3-16.6%3-25.4%3-33.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.8%4+-25.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 43.5% 2.30 +21.2%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -15.4%

Away win 25.6% 42.6% 2.35 -39.8%

Over 2.5 76.3% 71.4% 1.40 +6.8%

Over 3.5 56.8% 49.5% 2.02 +14.7%

BTTS 74.1% 74.1% 1.35 +0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob74.1%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 2–2✓ 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears2.4

Edgeworth E.1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.50

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +21.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.4%

Edgeworth E. (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -39.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Edgeworth E. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Edgeworth E. 26%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Weston Bears and 1.6 for Edgeworth E. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Edgeworth E.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Weston Bears vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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