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Las Vegas L. vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas L.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lexington

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.6%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 37.7% 2.65 +9.2%

Draw 31.2% 31.3% 3.20 -0.2%

Away win 27.6% 41.7% 2.40 -33.8%

Over 2.5 43.1% 51.3% 1.95 -16.0%

Over 3.5 22.2% 29.0% 3.45 -23.4%

BTTS 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.2%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas L.1.3

Lexington1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS L. · PPG 2.00

LEXINGTON · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=41.2%

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas L. (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +9.2%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.2%

Lexington (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas L. face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas L. a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Lexington 28%, so Las Vegas L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Las Vegas L. and 1.1 for Lexington (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas L. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Las Vegas L. vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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