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Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Bohemians

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.8%0-121.8%0-29.2%0-32.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.2%1-111.1%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.4%2-12.8%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.6%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 44.4% 2.25 -53.0%

Draw 38.2% 33.3% 3.00 +14.6%

Away win 40.9% 29.4% 3.40 +39.1%

Over 2.5 15.5% 38.5% 2.60 -59.7%

Over 3.5 4.9% 19.0% 5.25 -74.3%

BTTS 22.8% 47.6% 2.10 -52.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob22.8%

A 41% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.8%

#2 0–1 21.8%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers0.5

Bohemians0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 15.5% · O3.5 PROB 4.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.60

BOHEMIANS · PPG 2.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.60) > Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 20.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -53.0%

Draw 38.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +14.6%

Bohemians (A) 40.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +39.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 21% chance, the draw 38% and Bohemians 41%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.8 for Bohemians (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.20 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions