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Philadelphia vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia

PPG 0.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Nashville SC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 36.0% — a clear edge.

+69.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-114.2%0-212.8%0-37.6%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.8%1-110.5%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-02.2%2-13.9%2-23.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 41.7% 2.40 -68.1%

Draw 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.0%

Away win 61.0% 36.0% 2.78 +69.6%

Over 2.5 46.6% 54.1% 1.85 -13.8%

Over 3.5 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -18.4%

BTTS 45.3% 58.8% 1.70 -23.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob45.3%

A 61% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 0–1 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0✓ 7.9%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia0.7

Nashville SC1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.25

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia (H) 13.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -68.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.0%

Nashville SC (A) 61.0%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +69.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia face Nashville SC in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Nashville SC 61%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Philadelphia and 1.8 for Nashville SC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Nashville SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +69.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Philadelphia vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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