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New York RB vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

New York RB

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dallas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.8%0-25.0%0-33.5%0-4+3.0%1 1-03.8%1-18.0%1-28.5%1-35.9%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.7%2-27.1%2-35.0%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.8%3-24.0%3-32.8%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 49.5% 2.02 -39.6%

Draw 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.6%

Away win 46.8% 30.8% 3.25 +52.1%

Over 2.5 72.9% 67.6% 1.48 +7.9%

Over 3.5 52.4% 45.5% 2.20 +15.3%

BTTS 72.7% 70.4% 1.42 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob72.7%

A 47% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York RB1.7

Dallas2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.75

DALLAS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

New York RB (H) 29.9%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -39.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.6%

Dallas (A) 46.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +52.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB face Dallas in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Dallas 47%, so Dallas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for New York RB and 2.1 for Dallas (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 0-2.

New York RB vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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