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New York RB vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer logo USA flag USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 11 Sports Illustrated Stadium· Harrison Saturday, May 2, 2026 23:30
New York RB logo New York RB PPG 1.75
0-2 MISS
Dallas logo Dallas PPG 1.00
Away· +52.1% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB face Dallas in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Dallas 47%, so Dallas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for New York RB and 2.1 for Dallas (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.9%
Odds: 2.02 EV: -39.6%
Draw 23.3%
Odds: 3.75 EV: -12.6%
Away 46.8%
Odds: 3.25 EV: +52.1%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 72.9% Odds: 1.48 +7.9%
Over 3.5 52.4% Odds: 2.20 +15.3%
BTTS 72.7% Odds: 1.42 +3.2%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-2
3rd 2-2
4th 2-1
5th 1-3

Expected Goals (xG)

New York RB
1.68
Dallas
2.11

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +7.9% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Away(+52.1%)

League Track Record

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 61%
BTTS/No 68%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -11.7%
Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

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