New England vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 11 Gillette Stadium· Foxborough Saturday, May 2, 2026 23:30

New England PPG 3.00

1-0 MISS

Charlotte PPG 0.80

Over3.5· +51.5% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

New England face Charlotte in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Charlotte 17%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for New England and 1.3 for Charlotte (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 62.5%

Odds: 2.12 EV: +32.5%

Draw 20.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -27.2%

Away 16.9%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -46.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5 ✘ Miss

1X2 pick: Home → Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 71.4% Odds: 1.80 +28.5%

Over 3.5 50.5% Odds: 3.00 +51.5%

BTTS 66.3% Odds: 1.65 +9.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

New England

2.45

Charlotte

1.25

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +28.5% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+51.5%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=62.5%