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New England vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

New England

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Charlotte

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+28.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.1%1-17.6%1-24.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-18.3%4+-25.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 47.2% 2.12 +32.5%

Draw 20.5% 28.2% 3.55 -27.2%

Away win 16.9% 31.7% 3.15 -46.8%

Over 2.5 71.4% 55.6% 1.80 +28.5%

Over 3.5 50.5% 33.3% 3.00 +51.5%

BTTS 66.3% 60.6% 1.65 +9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.3%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England2.4

Charlotte1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.4% · O3.5 PROB 50.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 3.00

CHARLOTTE · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Win probability 1X2

New England (H) 62.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +32.5%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -27.2%

Charlotte (A) 16.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -46.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England face Charlotte in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Charlotte 17%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for New England and 1.3 for Charlotte (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.5%. This match finished 1-0.

New England vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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