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Columbus Crew vs Minnesota Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Minnesota Utd

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.1%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 57.8% 1.73 -21.1%

Draw 29.4% 26.0% 3.85 +13.2%

Away win 25.0% 23.1% 4.33 +8.3%

Over 2.5 47.8% 60.6% 1.65 -21.1%

Over 3.5 26.1% 38.2% 2.62 -31.6%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 0–0 7.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.5

Minnesota Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.60

MINNESOTA UTD · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.1%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +13.2%

Minnesota Utd (A) 25.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face Minnesota Utd in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Minnesota Utd 25%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Columbus Crew and 1.1 for Minnesota Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Minnesota Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Columbus Crew vs Minnesota Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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