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Atlanta Utd vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

Atlanta Utd

PPG 0.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CF Montreal

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.2%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.1%1-110.5%1-27.8%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.4%3-15.0%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 50.8% 1.97 -18.6%

Draw 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.6%

Away win 32.2% 28.6% 3.50 +12.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 39.1% 35.7% 2.80 +9.5%

BTTS 64.6% 62.5% 1.60 +3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.6%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta Utd1.7

CF Montreal1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 0.67

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta Utd (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.6%

CF Montreal (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta Utd face CF Montreal in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta Utd a 41% chance, the draw 27% and CF Montreal 32%, so Atlanta Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atlanta Utd and 1.5 for CF Montreal (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta Utd are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.50 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Atlanta Utd vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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