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Athletico PR vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

Athletico PR

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gremio

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.2%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.7%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 55.2% 1.81 -5.7%

Draw 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

Away win 19.7% 23.0% 4.35 -14.3%

Over 2.5 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Over 3.5 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -9.5%

BTTS 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletico PR1.6

Gremio0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 2.57

GREMIO · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Athletico PR (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -5.7%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.7%

Gremio (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletico PR face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletico PR a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Gremio 20%, so Athletico PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athletico PR and 0.9 for Gremio (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletico PR are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.29 for Gremio. This match finished 0-0.

Athletico PR vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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