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Inter Miami vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:15

Inter Miami

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Orlando City

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 78% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.5%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.9%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-112.5%4+-27.4%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.6% 75.8% 1.32 -4.2%

Draw 16.0% 17.4% 5.75 -8.0%

Away win 11.4% 13.7% 7.30 -16.8%

Over 2.5 78.4% 78.1% 1.28 +0.4%

Over 3.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

BTTS 66.8% 67.6% 1.48 -1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob66.8%

H 73% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–0 6.8%

#5 1–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami3.0

Orlando City1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.4% · O3.5 PROB 59.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.00

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 72.6%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -4.2%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -8.0%

Orlando City (A) 11.4%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face Orlando City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 73% chance, the draw 16% and Orlando City 11%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Inter Miami and 1.2 for Orlando City (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Orlando City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-4.

Inter Miami vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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