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Pittsburgh vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.3%0-25.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.2%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.4%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 54.1% 1.85 -30.1%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 34.6% 25.6% 3.90 +34.9%

Over 2.5 57.8% 48.8% 2.05 +18.5%

Over 3.5 35.4% 27.0% 3.70 +31.0%

BTTS 62.1% 54.6% 1.83 +13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh1.5

Phoenix Rising1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH · PPG 3.00

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=37.8%

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -30.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Phoenix Rising (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Phoenix Rising 35%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pittsburgh and 1.5 for Phoenix Rising (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Pittsburgh vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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