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Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 36 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 19:00

Las Palmas

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Leganes

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-112.8%0-25.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-16.8%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.4%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 60.6% 1.65 -33.8%

Draw 32.2% 27.0% 3.70 +19.1%

Away win 27.8% 19.6% 5.10 +41.8%

Over 2.5 27.9% 54.1% 1.85 -48.4%

Over 3.5 11.5% 30.8% 3.25 -62.6%

BTTS 35.6% 54.6% 1.83 -34.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob35.6%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 0–0 15.9%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Palmas1.0

Leganes0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.9% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS PALMAS · PPG 1.94

LEGANES · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

40%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=40.1%

Win probability 1X2

Las Palmas (H) 40.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -33.8%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +19.1%

Leganes (A) 27.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +41.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Palmas face Leganes in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Palmas a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Leganes 28%, so Las Palmas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Las Palmas and 0.8 for Leganes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Palmas are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Leganes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions