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Miami FC vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Brooklyn FC

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.1%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-112.7%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 46.5% 2.15 -1.7%

Draw 31.1% 29.4% 3.40 +5.7%

Away win 23.2% 33.9% 2.95 -31.6%

Over 2.5 41.0% 56.5% 1.77 -27.4%

Over 3.5 20.5% 33.9% 2.95 -39.5%

BTTS 47.4% 61.7% 1.62 -23.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.4

Brooklyn FC0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.33

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -1.7%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +5.7%

Brooklyn FC (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Brooklyn FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Brooklyn FC 23%, so Miami FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Miami FC and 0.9 for Brooklyn FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Brooklyn FC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Miami FC vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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