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Charleston vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:00

Charleston

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.3%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.1%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 74.1% 1.35 -28.3%

Draw 26.8% 22.7% 4.40 +17.9%

Away win 20.2% 13.5% 7.40 +49.5%

Over 2.5 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Over 3.5 30.5% 40.0% 2.50 -23.8%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleston1.8

Sporting JAX1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTON · PPG 2.33

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=53.1%

Win probability 1X2

Charleston (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -28.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +17.9%

Sporting JAX (A) 20.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +49.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleston face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleston a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Sporting JAX 20%, so Charleston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Charleston and 1.0 for Sporting JAX (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleston are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Charleston vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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