Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / SM Tucuman vs A. Rafaela

SM Tucuman vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:00

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

A. Rafaela

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-115.0%0-25.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.3%2-15.6%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.1%3-11.6%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% 54.1% 1.85 -38.2%

Draw 38.6% 34.5% 2.90 +11.9%

Away win 28.0% 20.8% 4.80 +34.4%

Over 2.5 22.8% — — —

Over 3.5 8.5% — — —

BTTS 33.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob33.2%

D 39% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 15.0%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Tucuman0.9

A. Rafaela0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.8% · O3.5 PROB 8.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.40

A. RAFAELA · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

SM Tucuman (H) 33.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -38.2%

Draw 38.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +11.9%

A. Rafaela (A) 28.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Tucuman face A. Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Tucuman a 33% chance, the draw 39% and A. Rafaela 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for SM Tucuman and 0.8 for A. Rafaela (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Tucuman are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.25 for A. Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 2-1.

SM Tucuman vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions