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Cienciano vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División logo Peru flag Peru - Primera División Apertura - 13 Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega· Cusco Saturday, May 2, 2026 22:30
Cienciano logo Cienciano PPG 2.67
1-0 MISS
Comerciantes U. logo Comerciantes U. PPG 1.00
Over3.5· +35.6% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face Comerciantes U. in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Comerciantes U. 20%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cienciano and 1.3 for Comerciantes U. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Comerciantes U.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.8%
Odds: 1.71 EV: -2.9%
Draw 22.9%
Odds: 3.65 EV: -16.4%
Away 20.3%
Odds: 4.80 EV: -2.6%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.9% Odds: 1.83 +22.4%
Over 3.5 45.2% Odds: 3.00 +35.6%
BTTS 65.0% Odds: 1.73 +12.4%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 3-1
5th 2-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Cienciano
2.18
Comerciantes U.
1.27

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +22.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+35.6%)

League Track Record

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5/Under 64%
BTTS/No 63%
Score Hit 52%
ROI -0.6%
Bet Hit 54% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=56.8%

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