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Cienciano vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 22:30

Cienciano

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Comerciantes U.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.0%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.9%1-18.8%1-25.6%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.5%3-17.0%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 58.5% 1.71 -2.9%

Draw 22.9% 27.4% 3.65 -16.4%

Away win 20.3% 20.8% 4.80 -2.6%

Over 2.5 66.9% 54.6% 1.83 +22.4%

Over 3.5 45.2% 33.3% 3.00 +35.6%

BTTS 65.0% 57.8% 1.73 +12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.0%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cienciano2.2

Comerciantes U.1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CIENCIANO · PPG 2.67

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=56.8%

Win probability 1X2

Cienciano (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -16.4%

Comerciantes U. (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face Comerciantes U. in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Comerciantes U. 20%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cienciano and 1.3 for Comerciantes U. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Comerciantes U.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Cienciano vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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