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Detroit City vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 22:00

Detroit City

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Louisville City

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.3%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.8%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 33.3% 3.00 +24.5%

Draw 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

Away win 27.7% 44.4% 2.25 -37.7%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -8.4%

BTTS 51.2% 54.1% 1.85 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.2%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1✓ 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Detroit City1.4

Louisville City1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DETROIT CITY · PPG 3.00

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 2.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Detroit City (H) 41.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +24.5%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.4%

Louisville City (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Detroit City face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Detroit City a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Louisville City 28%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Detroit City and 1.1 for Louisville City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Detroit City are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Detroit City vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions