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CD Santa Cruz vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:30

CD Santa Cruz

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Iquique

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.0%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.8%1-111.4%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 42.9% 2.33 +0.7%

Draw 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -11.0%

Away win 29.0% 35.1% 2.85 -17.3%

Over 2.5 55.8% 48.8% 2.05 +14.4%

Over 3.5 33.4% 27.0% 3.70 +23.6%

BTTS 60.0% 55.6% 1.80 +8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.0%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Santa Cruz1.6

D. Iquique1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CD SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.25

D. IQUIQUE · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=43.2%

Win probability 1X2

CD Santa Cruz (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +0.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.0%

D. Iquique (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Santa Cruz face D. Iquique in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Santa Cruz a 43% chance, the draw 28% and D. Iquique 29%, so CD Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for CD Santa Cruz and 1.3 for D. Iquique (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Santa Cruz are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.25 for D. Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-2.

CD Santa Cruz vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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