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Vitoria vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:30

Vitoria

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Coritiba

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.8%0-26.5%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.9%2-17.6%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 48.1% 2.08 -28.2%

Draw 32.9% 30.8% 3.25 +6.9%

Away win 32.6% 28.2% 3.55 +15.7%

Over 2.5 38.5% 46.5% 2.15 -17.2%

Over 3.5 18.6% 25.3% 3.95 -26.5%

BTTS 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.1%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.1

Coritiba1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.17

CORITIBA · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -28.2%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.9%

Coritiba (A) 32.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Coritiba 33%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Vitoria and 1.1 for Coritiba (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.57 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Vitoria vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions